Looming Disruptions in Major U.S. Ports 美国港口告急！

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On September 18th, ABC News reported that about 45,000 dockworkers at major ports on the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, which handle about half of the sea freight cargo in the U.S., are set to strike starting October 1. If the strike lasts for a month, it could incur potential shortages of consumer goods.
据美国广播公司（ABC）18日报道，美国东部和墨西哥湾重要港口大约4.5万码头工人计划自10月1日起罢工。这些码头工人所在的港口处理美国大约半数海运货物，如果罢工持续超过一个月，可能引发部分消费品短缺。

Prior to the strike plans announced by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), an alliance led by the National Retail Federation (NRF) sent a second letter to President Biden, urging the government to step in and prevent potential strikes at container and auto ports stretching from Maine to Texas. However, sources quoted by Reuters report that Biden has explicitly stated he will not invoke federal law to intervene in the strike actions of port workers in the East Coast and Gulf regions unless a new labor contract is not reached before the October 1 deadline.
在国际码头工人协会（ILA）宣布罢工计划之前，由全国零售联合会（NRF）领导的联盟向总统拜登发送了第二封信函，呼吁政府介入，以防止可能出现的从缅因州到德克萨斯州的集装箱和汽车港口罢工。但路透社援引的消息人士称，拜登已明确表示，除非在10月1日的最后期限之前未能达成新的劳动合同，否则他将不会援引联邦法律来干预东海岸及墨西哥湾地区港口工人的罢工行动。

HSBC Global Research's latest Global Freight Monitor report noted that by 2023, ports on the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts accounted for 57% of U.S. imports and 8% of global container trade. In recent months, West Coast ports have seen a surge in imports with its share projected to dip slightly to 55.5% of total imports year-to-date in 2024.
汇丰全球研究最新的全球货运监测报告指出，到2023年，美国海湾和东海岸港口占美国进口的57%，占全球集装箱贸易的8%。近几个月来，转移到美国西海岸港口的进口量激增，2024年这一比例略有下降，至今年迄今为止的总进口量的55.5%。

Peter Sand, Xeneta's Chief Analyst, warns in his latest analysis that if European exporters continue to recklessly load containers onto ships destined for the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast after September 30, they will face uncertainties related to union negotiations, and their goods may suffer from severe delays due to port congestion.
Xeneta的首席分析师Peter Sand在最新的分析报告中提醒，如果欧洲的出口商继续不顾一切地将集装箱装载到计划在9月30日后抵达美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的船只上，他们将不得不面对工会谈判的不确定性，货物可能会在港口拥堵中遭受严重延误。

Also, he noted that opportunities are lean for shippers who primarily depend on the main trade routes from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf Coast. Moreover, he added that with port-to-port sailing times of 50 days between Shanghai and New York, plus land operations, there are already containers on the ocean which will arrive on the U.S. East Coast after September 30 – deal or no deal.
同时，他指出，对于那些主要依赖远东到美国东部和墨西哥湾沿岸的主要前程贸易的托运人来说，他们的机会之窗已经关闭。他解释说，从上海到纽约的港到港航行时间长达50天，加上陆地作业，许多集装箱已经在海上，预计将在9月30日后抵达美国东海岸，无论是否达成协议。

Sand admitted that shippers have very few options left now as the best solutions may have already been missed. He added that container throughput from Southeast Asia to North America hit 500,000 TEUs, a record high in June, marking an early arrival of the traditional peak season. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2024 increased by 23% compared to the same period last year.
Sand坦言，托运人们现在几乎已经没有太多选择，而“最好的解决方案可能已经错过。”他补充说，6月份从东南亚到北美的集装箱吞吐量创下了历史新高，达到了50万标准箱，这标志着传统旺季的提前到来。2024年上半年的累计销量比去年同期增长了23%。

U.S. East Coast ports are projected to handle 2.3 million TEUs in October. Should dockworkers initiate a strike, it could disrupt the handling of 74,000 shipping containers per day, which would have a profound impact on the entire supply chain. Analysts have noted that, once the strike occurs, West Coast ports will have to absorb at least some of the shipping cargo redirected from East Coast ports, particularly from Asia. However, the West Coast and the U.S. rail system would be overwhelmed by the sheer volume of cargo.
有关资料估计显示，10月份美国东海岸的港口预计将处理230万标准箱。如果码头工人真的罢工，这将意味着每天将有74000标准箱的影响，将对整个供应链产生深远影响，同时有分析师表明，一旦罢工发生，西海岸港口将分担至少一部分转自东海岸港口的海运货物，尤其是来自亚洲的海运货物，但无论西海岸还是美国铁路系统都无法承载所有货物。